By Viсtor vicktop55
Editor´s note: We present here the opinion of a much-read Russian independent journalist in the on-line sphere, Viktor (Ви́ктор in Russian). His followers in Telegram and Tweeter amount to nearly 40,000. This although his account has on some occasions been suspended, shadowed, or banned. Along the year of this war, his analyses –with immovable faith on Russia’s victory– have not excluded criticism. The Indicter’s editor team regard Viktor’s opinion on the genesis of the Ukraine war –the first op-ed we have ever published by a Russian voice, of valid interest to our readers.
A brief presentation
My offline name won’t tell you anything. Online, particularly on Twitter, I am known as vicktop55 (t.me/vicktop55, on Telegram). My enemies, however, would call me a “Russian propagandist” and “quilted jacket”. As this is my first time here in The Indicter, so I will tell the readers a little about me: I am a “freelance journalist”. I am not funded by any state or any other organizations. Instead, I am independent of any instructions. Yes, I am Russian, and I love Russia. And what I write depends on my principles, on my vision of current events and on my intuition on geopolitical events, based on life and professional experience.
So, to the war.
I know that many of you see this war as Russia’s aggression against an independent and democratic Ukraine. “Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union empire”, isn’t that what they tell you?
To start, there is a connection with the Soviet Union here, in the sense that this is a consequence, and a continuation, of the process of the collapse of the USSR. Who said it must be a fast process? The declaration by the republics of the former Soviet Union of their independence did not mean collapse. Putin has put it in this way: “The new subjects, the former republics, received their territories as a generous gift from Russia. We accepted this and agreed to live in new conditions. And we are ready to help our neighbours in these territories. But we will never allow that these territories pose a threat to Russia”.
The independence of the former republics was not in itself a real collapse of the Union, and neither posed any threat to Russia. All economic ties between the republics were preserved, as well as friendly relations. Russia did help the new republics. And since we are talking about Ukraine, we can say that Russia’s subside to the Ukrainian economy from 1991 to 2013 amounted to about $200 billion.
However, Russia’s enemies managed to stage a successful anti-Russian coup d’état in Ukraine, spending only $5 billion, according to Victoria Nuland. This is because they were not investing in the Ukrainian economy, but in anti-Russian propaganda and the brainwashing of Ukrainians.
The purpose of the West in Ukraine after this coup became obvious. They wanted to tear Ukraine away from Russia and turn it into anti-Russia and into their springboard to fight against Russia. This is exactly what Vladimir Putin promised to prevent.
Already during the Maidan and during the coup days – – when Nuland, Payet, McCain prominently appeared in Kyiv, I thought and said that there would be a war and Kyiv would lie in ruins.
I was sure that Putin would not give Ukraine to the control of the West. Ukraine itself started the war against Russia and the Russian people. Inside the country, destroying the Russian language and supporters of Russia. And in the Donbass, starting a war, the so-called ATO, against the Russian population, which refused to recognize the Nazi, anti-Russian Kyiv authorities.
It was 2014. The shelling of peaceful cities and towns of Donbass lasted eight years before Putin’s patience ran out and he announced on February 24, 2022, the start of a special military operation in Ukraine. The goals of this operation were named as the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. Russian State Duma deputy Pyotr Tolstoy said this well in a conference, 10 of February:
Russia was compelled to start the special military operation to ensure its own security
Why was Russia unable to ensure its security by non-military means? She tried to do it more than once. The so-called Minsk agreements provided for the federalization of Ukraine, the guarantee of the rights of the Russian-speaking population, and the neutral status of Ukraine. But as we now know, Ukraine initially did not intend to do any of this. This was reported by Merkel, Poroshenko and others. This time was necessary for the West to prepare the Ukrainian army for war with Russia.
Let´s recall that shelling from the Ukrainian side of the cities of Donbass continued. In Ukraine itself, thousands of Russian supporters were repressed. The Russian language was banned in public places. At the same time, American and British military bases, and naval bases, were being built at full speed on the territory of Ukraine –including in the immediate vicinity of the Russian border.
Can you imagine a Russian military base on the US border? Of course, such a situation could not suit Russia. And in December 2021, Russia made the last peaceful attempt to resolve its security issues peacefully. Russia handed over to the United States a list of requirements for security assurances. These requirements are even published in the West media.
In short, Russia categorically demanded NATO to guarantees about: a) not to further expand NATO to the east; b) Ukraine’s not entrance to NATO; c) The US and Russia had to proceed from the principle of the indivisibility of security. That is, do not improve your security by reducing the security of the other side; and d) The USA and NATO had to exclude any military activity and military construction in the countries of the former USSR.
However, these demands were rejected by the West. It was stated that Russia had not defeat them in war to enable making such demands. The West, on the contrary, presented its own demands to Russia: Russia was required to move its troops, which were on Russian territory, to a place where the West would tell them to move.
Thus, as President Putin said when announcing the start of the special operation, Russia was left with no choice. And on February 24, Russia sent its troops into Ukraine. It was a massive entry of troops from different directions and to great depths. Western experts unanimously declared that Kyiv would be taken in three days and all of Ukraine in three weeks.
Even before this war started, I thought and said that this is the worst thing that could happen to Ukraine and Russia. And that such a war would be a victory for the West. Some American general said that it was a great success: for relatively little money, without sending American soldiers, we got a big war with Russia.
The special operation
Immediately after Putin announced the special operation, my readers began to ask me how long, in my opinion, the war would last. Understanding what this war is, I said that at least it would be one year, and a million people would die. A year has passed, the war is still here. The total death toll, I think, is already approaching 500,000.
The beginning of the special operation was not successful for Russia, and the forecasts of Western experts did not come true. Moreover, the West has decided that Russia is weak. And already in March 2022, the West, through the mouths of its various officials, began to repeatedly and openly declare its intention to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.
Subsequently, the supply of Western weapons, training of the Ukrainian army, providing it with means of communication, combat control systems, accurate coordinates of targets –along with the supply of high-precision weapons–, undoubtedly played a role in the success of the Ukrainian army and the retreat of the Russian army from some previously occupied territories.
Russia had to carry out a partial mobilization and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were able to regroup and stabilize the front line. This is the situation we are seeing now.
For my part, unlike several of my readers, I am calm about the movements of the front line. Because I am sure that Russia will win, no matter the oscillations in the gain versus retreat from some areas. And I am sure that Russia will win because in this war there are no other options for the onset of peace, except for the victory of Russia.
Moreover, the victory of Russia is the establishment of control over the entire territory of the former Ukraine and the liquidation of the failed Nazi Ukrainian state. I was already convinced from the beginning, and now I am sure that this will happen. Principally, because a state based on Nazism and hatred for people of another nation cannot be viable. There are no examples in the history of such states. Hitler tried to build something similar, but we know how it ended.
Russia cannot, and will not allow defeat
When announcing the special operation, President Vladimir Putin said that we were left with no choice. I must tell you that Putin and Russia do not have this choice even now. Russia’s goals have not been achieved and therefore the special operation must be continued. Of course, many of you have doubts that Russia can achieve its goals. Especially after the rumours about the negotiations, about the fact that the main thing for us is to protect the Donbass. But the fact is that the goals were initially set correctly, and they cannot be changed. Any other option, except for the return of the entire territory, means the continuation of the war.
Mr. Jens Stoltenberg recently stated that a Russian victory for the NATO bloc is more dangerous than an escalation of the conflict with Russia, that is, more dangerous than a nuclear war. These Western reckless warmongers are willing to risk nuclear war to defeat Russia. At the same time, they say that Russia is weak, and that its nuclear weapons do not work, or that Russia will not dare to use them. That instead a nuclear war Russia would prefer defeat. They are utterly wrong. For Russia, Putin, the Russian people, will not allow defeat. A defeat would mean the disintegration of Russia, its total liquidation, and the complete control of the West over the territory of the former Russia. Do you see such an option? Me not. Therefore, there will be no nuclear war. Russia will defeat the West in Ukraine and achieve its goals. The world has no other choice.